This past week, the Southern Californian Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California made a splash in the free agent market, signing former Twins center fielder to a five-year, ninety million dollar deal. This installs Hunter as the Angel’s centerfielder, displacing last years disaster- Gary Matthews Jr- (a joke of a fifty million dollar deal based on a fluke batting average and one incredible catch). Hunter is now part of a very crowded outfield picture including Vladimer Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Hunter, Matthews Jr., and Reggie Willits. Presumably, Guerrero and Anderson will move between their respective corners and the designated hitter spot, with Willits and Matthews acting as super-subs.

 Certainly I have no real argument to the notion that, all things being equal, Hunter is superior to having Matthews or Willits in center. However, all things are not equal, and the LAA’s have just devoted almost one hundred million dollars to plugging a hole that only partially needed filling. This signing seems to be similar in motivation to that of Matthews, getting an aging center-fielder with a gold glove reputation after a season in which he produced batting numbers out of line with his previous numbers. Furthermore, while I do not see the Hunter deal turning into the embarrassing screw up that anyone paying attention predicted it would be, I do not particularly see it is a positive move.

       Last year, Hunter put up a .287/.334/.505 line, all-star level for a gold glove center fielder; this of course, rests on the assumption that Hunter is a gold glove quality outfielder, and that, if so, he will continue to perform at this level for the duration of his contract. In his favor, Hunter has a penchant for the spectacular, home run robbing play, and has been rewarded in off-season hardware seven times. Unfortunately, gold gloves-as been proven time and again- mean nothing; Derek Jeter won them as the worst defensive shortstop in the game, Rafael Palmeiro won one as a designate hitter, and Albert Pujols did not win one this year despite being a first baseman of historical defensive quality. We judge offensive statistics by what we know, yet we persist in judging defensive statistics by what we see. If a batter has the prettiest swing, does this make him the best hitter? If a batter hits the longest home run of the year, does this make him the best home run hitter? Of course not. Why then, do we insist that the player who looks prettiest in the field, or who makes the most spectacular play is this best fielder? It is entirely counterintuitive. The best fielder is the one who makes THE MOST plays, not the best plays, and Hunter- while quite good- is definitively not that. According to most defensive metrics, Hunter has been slightly above average the past three years. Going by John Dewan’s plus/minus numbers (probably the most respected measure of defensive prowess), Hunter was outperformed last year by: Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Coco Crisp, Curtis Granderson, nook Logan, Alfredo Amezaga, Jacque Jones, Juan Pierre, and Ichiro Suzuki.

As a hitter. Again, Hunter put up a solid line last year, even if you give him credit as only an average center-fielder. But 2007 was somewhat out of line with his career performance, and the list of outfielders who have suddenly turned into better hitters after the age of thirty is pretty short. His value as a hitter is fairly tied into his batting average, and last years mark of .289 (producing an on base percentage of .334) was just two points behind his previous high, put up in 2002. If his batting average falls back to his career norm of .271, his OBP and SLG will sink accordingly, turning him into an average offensive performer, rather than an asset. The real danger, however, is not that he will revert to his career averages, but that, as he ages, he will sink below them. In three years, if he is putting up lines of .260/.315/.445, he will quickly become a detriment at the plate, and he does not have the defense to carry that sort of bat. If Hunter loses enough in the field to necessitate a move to an outfield corner, he turns into a replacement level baseball players, hardly worth the league minimum, let alone eighteen million a year.