I am utterly and wholly confused about the market for centerfielders this off-season. Last week I talked about how out of whack I felt the Angels signing of Hunter was. This week my confusion is a bit different, in a market when Hunter gets 90 million, and Aaron Rowand is demanding 14 million a year, I cannot understand how there is so little interest in Andruw Jones—a player who seems to be, in most ways, far superior to every other outfielder available.

Which of these three players would you be happiest with manning centerfield for your team?

A 142 G, 532 AB, 150 H, 33 D, 3 T, 17 HR, 11 SB, 104 K, 32 BB, .283/.346/.453/.799

B 135 G, 510 AB, 142 H, 30 D, 1 T, 24 HR, 18 SB, 91 K, 40 BB, .279/.337/.489/.826

C 157 G, 574 AB, 143 H, 27 D, 2 T, 39 HR, 5 SB, 126 K, 72 BB, .249/.347/.510/.857

The answer should be immediately apparent that C is the best option of the three. He hits for a lower average and runs slightly less than the first two, but is on base just as often, due to better patience, and hits for significantly more power. In addition to his superiority in these “rate” statistics, he is on the field for 15-20 more games, producing better “counting stats” as well. What if I then told you that players C and A are both 30, while player B is 32? What if I then added that player C is the best defender of the three, and will cost less then player B, and the same as player A? After all this, it seems certain that C is the best option for any team.

Anyone who began with the first paragraph, can probably guess that player C is Andruw Jones. Player A is Aaron Rowand, and Player B is Torrii Hunter. These are the average performances of the past three years for each of these outfielders. Yet, somehow teams were tripping over each other trying to sign Hunter, and Rowand is getting much more free agent love than Andruw. Why then is this the case? The answer is fairly obvious by looking at the 2007 seasons for each of these three players. For Rowand, his 2007 season was easily the best of this three year period. The same is true for Hunter (although not as dramatically so). Andruw Jones, in 2007, suffered through his worst season in a decade. This, however, does not particularly concern me, I will explain why.

There is a simple statistic called Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). It is exactly what it sounds like. It tells you you a batter’s average when the fielders are involved, when the result of an at-bat is something other than a strikeout, a walk, or a homerun (the three true outcomes—TTO). Due to a tendency toward more fly balls/ ground balls/ line drives, etc, some players tend to hit for better BABIP than others. However, from year to year an extreme variation in a players BABIP can generally be attributed to good or bad luck. Remembering that the difference between a .270 hitter and a .300 hitter is really only 1 hit every 10 days or so; it is easy to see how dramatically this number can shift due to the vagaries of luck.

Aaron Rowand’s career BABIP is .321, in 2007, it was .345. Hunter only slightly outperformed his career BABIP, with a mark of .303 compared to a career .296. Jones has a career BABIP of .279, in 2007, it was .242—a drop of 37 points. This collapse in BABIP will not be sustained, and a return to form, and to normal luck, will see Jones’ line return to the .260/.345/.530 we have come to expect from him.

Whoever ends up signing Jones to an incentive-laden deal this winter, will almost certainly have brought home the catch of the centerfield free agent market.