Your 2008 Detroit Marlins.
Ben Feldman
December 7, 2007

Wednesday, amidst a flurry of Santana talk, the Tigers shocked Nashville with one of (if not the) biggest trades in recent memory. Detroit nabbed Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for a package of prospects including Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin,  Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, and Dallas Trahern. For the Marlins, this falls in line perfectly with a now decade long trend, of shipping out established talent for not-yet-established talent. For the Tigers, it puts them in a dead heat with the Red Sox, Yankees and Indians as the best four teams in the American League (one of whom will necessarily not make the playoffs).

Last year, Detroit scored 887 runs, second in the American League. This off-season, they have dramatically changed their lineup of 2007. Below is their projected starting lineup, with projections for 2008- courtesy of The Bill James Handbook.

CF-Curtis Granderson- .294/.359/.523/.882 (22 HR, 20 SB)

2B-Placido Polanco- .312/.360/.423/.783 (9 HR, 7 SB)

3B- Miguel Cabrera- .327/.411/.579/.990 (35 HR, 3 SB)

RF-Magglio Ordonez- .314/.383/.517/.900 (29 HR, 3 SB)

1B- Carlos Guillen-  .297/.368/.466/.834 (17 HR, 11 SB)

DH- Gary Sheffield- .280/.384/.488/.872 (26 HR, 13 SB)

SS- Edgar Renteria- .294/.349/.421/.778 (12 HR, 12 SB)

LF- Jacque Jones- .278/.332/.433/.765 (14 HR, 6 SB)

C- Ivan Rodriguez- .284/.316/.431/.748 (12 HR, 4 SB)

Pretty impressive. The Batting Order projects to have an aggregate OPS of easily over .800, and produce somewhere around 176 home runs (the team total will be higher with contributions from the bench). The additions of Cabrera and Renteria are mitigated somewhat by expected regressions from Granderson, Ordonez, and Polanco. Nevertheless, this trade seems to cement  the Tigers place as the second best hitting squad in the AL (after the NYY), with some potential to score more than anyone else in the circuit.

The rotation will include Justin Verlander, Jeremey Bonderman, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, and the newest Tiger pitcher, Dontrelle Willis. Willis is no where near the pitcher he was in 2003, and is moving to a far tougher division in a far tougher league. However, it should be noted that his recent struggles may be somewhat explained by the team behind him. Willis never racked up huge strikeout totals as a Marlin, and in the past two seasons, when his ERA jumped from 2.63 to 3.87, and then to 5.17. His strikeout totals did not change significantly. What did change were his control, his homeruns allowed, and his hits allowed. The homeruns, BB and HBP fall into that “Three True Outcomes” category— results over which only the pitcher has control. The Hits however, are not solely his responsibility. 

From 2003 to 2005, Dontrelle WIllis allowed 8.6 hits per 9 innings pitched. In 2006-7 that number went up to 9.5. For pitchers who do not miss alot of bats, Flordia is not the place to be. Last year the Marlins had the worst defensive team in Major League Baseball. Particular standouts being Hanley Ramirez, whose bottom of the barrel defense kept him from deserving (if not winning) the NL MVP award, and Josh Willingham, who may be “Manny Ramirez” bad in left. This year, Dontrelle will pitch to the best defensive catcher of the past two decades (if not all time), a centerfielder who deserved a Gold Glove award, and a second basemen who got one. Going from the worst up-the-middle defense in baseball, to one of the best, may have a profound effect on his performance, despite switching leagues.

Now for the Marlins. Willis is a player whose perceived value, due to his marketability, far exceeds his actual value (even if he brings his ERA down to the 4.50 range. Cabrera, is, if anything, undervalued. If it were not for the fact that he shares a league with Albert Pujols, or if he played in a different City, he might be the most famous player in baseball. According to BaseballReference.com, at 21, 22, 23, and 24, he is most similar to the same player each year; Hank Aaron. Despite all this, he only has two cost-controlled years left, and will as a 26 year old free agent, demanding a contract somewhere along the lines of 25 million dollars a year.

While it must be endlessly frustrating for Marlins’ fans to watch their team sell off all of its assets as soon as they start making over 4 million a year, they have done a fairly remarkable job of turning talent into more talent. Realistically, they were not going to compete with the Phillies, Mets, or Braves during the next two seasons (even if they wanted to spend money given this free agent market). Assuming that their next two years would max out at 84 wins or so, and that they truly could not resign Cabrera, this is not such an unreasonable move...given an appropriate return.

Florida got a fair return on their two players, getting 6 prospects, 2 of whom: Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, had ranked as 2 of the 3 best players in the Tigers system. Miller is a 6’6’’ left hander who projects as a potential ace. Maybin is an incredibly toolsy, if somewhat raw, centerfielder. Expect him to start for the Marlins on opening day and immediately be their best at the position in the past 5 years. The rest of the haul does not project as impact bats or arms, but could make reasonable contributions at the back end of the rotation or off of the bench.

All in all, as frustrating as this trade may be for Florida, I do not dislike the move for either team. If  Detroit gets to another series behind Cabrera’s bat, and Miller and Maybin develop as promised, both teams will end up having something to feel good about from this deal, even if it stings Miami fans every time Cabrera makes an Allstar team or competes for an MVP award.  

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