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Matt Tolbert's View

Conference Championship Game Previews & Picks .
Mattie Tolbert
January 20, 2008

 


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Conference Championship Game Previews & Picks

So it's down to the NFL's final four!!! I don't think anybody expected the Chargers or Giants to make it this far, but now it's time to see what they can do against some of the league's elite teams!!!!

AFC Championship Game: Chargers vs. Patriots

I am still amazed at how the Chargers were able to win against the Colts last Sunday. Considering that Philip Rivers was unavailable for most of the 2nd half with a knee injury, LaDainian Tomlinson was out for pretty much all of the 2nd half with a knee injury as well & with Antonio Gates gutting it out despite his dislocated toe, San Diego provided an upset performance for the ages. But now, can this team put together another inspired effort to hand New England their 1st loss of the season AND prevent them from reaching the Super Bowl?

Not very likely. The Chargers are very banged up offensively heading into this game, especially Philip Rivers who is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game with a partially torn ACL, although Rivers is saying that he'll be able to play. (Head coach Norv Turner says it's a game-time decision.) Rivers will test the injury on Sunday morning, but the team will have to most likely rely on backup Billy Volek (1st start in 2 years) to get them to the Super Bowl if Rivers can't go or is ineffective. Volek hasn't won an NFL start in over 3 years, with his last win coming on January 2nd, 2005 against Detroit. (Volek was with the Titans)

It looks like LaDainian Tomlinson will play Sunday, but LT has rushed for a combined 70 yards during San Diego's 2 playoff wins. He'll need to produce a lot more than that if the Chargers want to have a chance to end the Patriots' perfect season. LT has had success in the past against New England (which includes a 217 yard game in '02), but was held to just 2.4 yards per carry during the Week 2 matchup against the Patriots.

Antonio Gates is listed as doubtful & has not practiced this week with his toe injury. It's tough to gauge whether Gates will play since he was able to suit up for Sunday's win over Indianapolis, but at the same time i know that he doesn't want to hurt his team by further damaging his injured toe. Even though Gates did catch 7 receptions for 77 yards during the Week 2 meeting, his lone touchdown came in the 4th quarter with New England already up 31-7. The Patriots do a great job at shutting down the opposing team's tight end (which they struggled a bit doing last week with Jacksonville's Marcedes Lewis, who had 57 receiving yards on the game's opening drive, but just 17 for the rest of the way).

Tom Brady has been just unbelievable to watch all season. Last weekend, he completed a mind-boggling 92.9% of his passes (1 of his incompletions was a drop by Wes Welker) and broke Vinny Testaverde's record (21-23 for 91.3% in '93 w/Cleveland) for the highest single-game completion percentage in NFL history.

Brady has good numbers career-wise against San Diego in 4 meetings, completing 66.5% of his passes with a 93.3 rating, 8 touchdowns & 4 interceptions. (Not including postseason play)

Randy Moss will undoubtely be the focus of the Chargers' defense, but Wes Welker can & will take advantage of single-coverage opportunities. Welker led the NFL with 112 receptions this season & caught a team-high 9 receptions during the Divisional Playoff win over Jacksonville. I sense that he'll be very busy & should have a productive outing against San Diego on Sunday.

Of course, New England's offense really opens up when Laurence Maroney is running the ball with success, which he has been doing as of late with three 100 yard performances over his last 4 games. During Maroney's 2 year career, the Patriots are a perfect 5-0 & have averaged 31 PPG when Maroney rushes for 100 yards or more on the ground.

San Diego has scored 30 or more points five times this season, but look who it was against:

Denver, Houston, Baltimore, Detroit & Oakland. These 5 teams had a combined record of 31-49, which doesn't impress me.

I just don't think that the Chargers will be able to match the Patriots point-for-point in this one. The truth of the matter is, San Diego has been very inconsistent this season on the road despite their huge win over Indianapolis at the RCA Dome last Sunday. Their 5-4 road record is the weakest among the final 4 teams remaining, with the Patriots, Packers & Giants combining to post a 24-2 record away from home, including the playoffs.

I don't know if the Patriots will mock Shawne Merriman's "Lights Out" dance after Sunday, but they will be headed to their 4th Super Bowl apperance over the last 7 years. Patriots 34, Chargers 17.

NFC Championship Game: Giants vs. Packers

I did not think that the Giants would be able to get this far & are reminding me of the playoff run that the '05 Steelers took en route to winning Super Bowl XL over Seattle when they won 3 straight road games as a 6 seed.

New York will now look to knock off the most consistent team all season in the NFC, which has been Green Bay.

Brett Favre has broken several NFL records in his 17th year with the Packers, which includes all-time career passing touchdowns, all-time career passing yards & strangely enough, the all-time career interception mark.

Favre is having a lot of fun this season & he hopes that the ride will not end on Sunday. Lambeau Field has been a wonderful home advantage for the Packers with a 15-2 all-time playoff record & an incredible 46 year streak from 1957 to 2003 where Green Bay did not lose one single postseason home game!!

Ryan Grant will get a chance to face his old team on Sunday, who dealt him to the Packers during the pre-season for a 6th round draft pick. Talk about highway robbery!!!! Some current Giants players such as Michael Strahan are upset that Grant is not still with the team. Wanna know why? His 1,130 rushing yards since Week 8 are the most in the NFL. Combine this with his impressive 201 yard performance in his postseason debut last week against Seattle (first player to rush for 200 yards or more in the playoffs since Eric Dickerson ran for 248 yards against Dallas in '85), and i can see why Strahan is so upset.

Eli Manning will make his 1st career Lambeau Field apperance on Sunday & will have to battle some frigid weather conditions (Temps will be in single digits for 5:30pm kickoff) in order to give his team a shot at reaching the Super Bowl. The Giants have done a nice job playing mistake-free football over the past 2 weeks, which is a big reason why they are in the NFC Championship Game. But Green Bay's defense has forced at least 1 or more takeaway this season in all but 1 game, which was the 35-7 blowout loss against Chicago in Week 16.

A lot has changed since the Week 2 meeting, which Green Bay won 35-13 thanks to a 14 point barrage in a little under 2 minutes during the 4th quarter at Giants Stadium.

Brandon Jackson & DeShawn Wynn both split carries in Week 2 & have combined for only 125 rushing attempts this season, which is easily way behind Ryan Grant's team-high 188 attempts.

Greg Jennings, who leads the Packers with a 70.8 YPG average, 17.2 yards per catch & 12 receiving touchdowns during the regular season DID NOT catch a single reception during Week 2.

Dedric Ward was the Giants' leading rusher during Week 2 (ran 15 times for 90 yards) , but was lost for the season in Week 13 against Chicago with an ankle injury. Despite appearing in only 8 regular-season games, Ward averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry which almost surpassed current starter Brandon Jacobs' 5.0 yards-per-carry in 3 fewer apperances.

Jeremy Shockey led the Giants with 5 receptions for 60 yards in Week 2, but was lost for the season in Week 15 with a broken leg injury. Shockey was 3rd on the team with 57 receptions, so the Giants will need seldom-used Steve Smith to step up on Sunday to help out a hobbled Plaxico Burress (ankle) & Amani Toomer (11 receptions for 154 yards & 3 touchdowns in 2 playoff games), who has been the team's most consistent receiver so far during the playoffs.

The only way i can see the Giants putting up a lot of points on Sunday is if they get a good game out of Brandon Jacobs, who has combined to rush 27 times for just 88 yards during the playoffs with just a 3.3 yards-per-carry average, which is the 2nd lowest average (LaDainian Tomlinson is 1st with 2.5 yards-per-carry) among all the remaining starting postseason backs.

Green Bay's defense will play a big factor in Sunday's game. The Packers are tops among all remaining playoff teams by allowing just 172 YPG through the air & a very measly 28 YPG against the run. Considering that Seattle was only able to muster a pair of field goals after taking an early 14-0 first quarter lead, i was very impressed with Green Bay's performance last week in blizzard-like snow conditions.

The Packers will be just the second 2 seed to host the NFC Championship Game in the past 27 years, as Ron Jaworski's Eagles also did so in 1980 when they beat Dallas 20-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.

The Giants' road dominance will come to an end on Sunday, as the Packers will advance to their 5th Super Bowl apperance in franchise history. Packers 30, Giants 13.

Until then,

Mattie T

Sports Writer for BMS Radio Chicago

www.BMSRadio.com

bmsradio


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