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Conference Championship Game Previews & Picks .
Mattie Tolbert
January 20, 2008
Conference Championship Game Previews & Picks
So it's down to the NFL's final four!!! I don't think
anybody expected the Chargers or Giants to make it this far, but now it's time
to see what they can do against some of the league's elite teams!!!!
AFC Championship Game: Chargers vs. Patriots
I am still amazed at how the Chargers were able to win against the Colts last
Sunday. Considering that Philip Rivers was unavailable for most of the 2nd half
with a knee injury, LaDainian Tomlinson was out for pretty much all of the 2nd
half with a knee injury as well & with Antonio Gates gutting it out despite his
dislocated toe, San Diego provided an upset performance for the ages. But now,
can this team put together another inspired effort to hand New England their 1st
loss of the season AND prevent them from reaching the Super Bowl?
Not very likely. The Chargers are very banged up offensively heading into this
game, especially Philip Rivers who is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game with
a partially torn ACL, although Rivers is saying that he'll be able to play.
(Head coach Norv Turner says it's a game-time decision.) Rivers will test the
injury on Sunday morning, but the team will have to most likely rely on backup
Billy Volek (1st start in 2 years) to get them to the Super Bowl if Rivers can't
go or is ineffective. Volek hasn't won an NFL start in over 3 years, with his
last win coming on January 2nd, 2005 against Detroit. (Volek was with the
Titans)
It looks like LaDainian Tomlinson will play Sunday, but LT has rushed for a
combined 70 yards during San Diego's 2 playoff wins. He'll need to produce a lot
more than that if the Chargers want to have a chance to end the Patriots'
perfect season. LT has had success in the past against New England (which
includes a 217 yard game in '02), but was held to just 2.4 yards per carry
during the Week 2 matchup against the Patriots.
Antonio Gates is listed as doubtful & has not practiced this week with his toe
injury. It's tough to gauge whether Gates will play since he was able to suit up
for Sunday's win over Indianapolis, but at the same time i know that he doesn't
want to hurt his team by further damaging his injured toe. Even though Gates did
catch 7 receptions for 77 yards during the Week 2 meeting, his lone touchdown
came in the 4th quarter with New England already up 31-7. The Patriots do a
great job at shutting down the opposing team's tight end (which they struggled a
bit doing last week with Jacksonville's Marcedes Lewis, who had 57 receiving
yards on the game's opening drive, but just 17 for the rest of the way).
Tom Brady has been just unbelievable to watch all season. Last weekend, he
completed a mind-boggling 92.9% of his passes (1 of his incompletions was a drop
by Wes Welker) and broke Vinny Testaverde's record (21-23 for 91.3% in '93
w/Cleveland) for the highest single-game completion percentage in NFL history.
Brady has good numbers career-wise against San Diego in 4 meetings, completing
66.5% of his passes with a 93.3 rating, 8 touchdowns & 4 interceptions. (Not
including postseason play)
Randy Moss will undoubtely be the focus of the Chargers' defense, but Wes Welker
can & will take advantage of single-coverage opportunities. Welker led the NFL
with 112 receptions this season & caught a team-high 9 receptions during the
Divisional Playoff win over Jacksonville. I sense that he'll be very busy &
should have a productive outing against San Diego on Sunday.
Of course, New England's offense really opens up when Laurence Maroney is
running the ball with success, which he has been doing as of late with three 100
yard performances over his last 4 games. During Maroney's 2 year career, the
Patriots are a perfect 5-0 & have averaged 31 PPG when Maroney rushes for 100
yards or more on the ground.
San Diego has scored 30 or more points five times this season, but look who it
was against:
Denver, Houston, Baltimore, Detroit & Oakland. These 5 teams had a combined
record of 31-49, which doesn't impress me.
I just don't think that the Chargers will be able to match the Patriots
point-for-point in this one. The truth of the matter is, San Diego has been very
inconsistent this season on the road despite their huge win over Indianapolis at
the RCA Dome last Sunday. Their 5-4 road record is the weakest among the final 4
teams remaining, with the Patriots, Packers & Giants combining to post a 24-2
record away from home, including the playoffs.
I don't know if the Patriots will mock Shawne Merriman's "Lights Out" dance
after Sunday, but they will be headed to their 4th Super Bowl apperance over the
last 7 years. Patriots 34, Chargers 17.
NFC Championship Game: Giants vs. Packers
I did not think that the Giants would be able to get this far & are reminding me
of the playoff run that the '05 Steelers took en route to winning Super Bowl XL
over Seattle when they won 3 straight road games as a 6 seed.
New York will now look to knock off the most consistent team all season in the
NFC, which has been Green Bay.
Brett Favre has broken several NFL records in his 17th year with the Packers,
which includes all-time career passing touchdowns, all-time career passing yards
& strangely enough, the all-time career interception mark.
Favre is having a lot of fun this season & he hopes that the ride will not end
on Sunday. Lambeau Field has been a wonderful home advantage for the Packers
with a 15-2 all-time playoff record & an incredible 46 year streak from 1957 to
2003 where Green Bay did not lose one single postseason home game!!
Ryan Grant will get a chance to face his old team on Sunday, who dealt him to
the Packers during the pre-season for a 6th round draft pick. Talk about highway
robbery!!!! Some current Giants players such as Michael Strahan are upset that
Grant is not still with the team. Wanna know why? His 1,130 rushing yards since
Week 8 are the most in the NFL. Combine this with his impressive 201 yard
performance in his postseason debut last week against Seattle (first player to
rush for 200 yards or more in the playoffs since Eric Dickerson ran for 248
yards against Dallas in '85), and i can see why Strahan is so upset.
Eli Manning will make his 1st career Lambeau Field apperance on Sunday & will
have to battle some frigid weather conditions (Temps will be in single digits
for 5:30pm kickoff) in order to give his team a shot at reaching the Super Bowl.
The Giants have done a nice job playing mistake-free football over the past 2
weeks, which is a big reason why they are in the NFC Championship Game. But
Green Bay's defense has forced at least 1 or more takeaway this season in all
but 1 game, which was the 35-7 blowout loss against Chicago in Week 16.
A lot has changed since the Week 2 meeting, which Green Bay won 35-13 thanks to
a 14 point barrage in a little under 2 minutes during the 4th quarter at Giants
Stadium.
Brandon Jackson & DeShawn Wynn both split carries in Week 2 & have combined for
only 125 rushing attempts this season, which is easily way behind Ryan Grant's
team-high 188 attempts.
Greg Jennings, who leads the Packers with a 70.8 YPG average, 17.2 yards per
catch & 12 receiving touchdowns during the regular season DID NOT catch a single
reception during Week 2.
Dedric Ward was the Giants' leading rusher during Week 2 (ran 15 times for 90
yards) , but was lost for the season in Week 13 against Chicago with an ankle
injury. Despite appearing in only 8 regular-season games, Ward averaged 4.8
yards-per-carry which almost surpassed current starter Brandon Jacobs' 5.0
yards-per-carry in 3 fewer apperances.
Jeremy Shockey led the Giants with 5 receptions for 60 yards in Week 2, but was
lost for the season in Week 15 with a broken leg injury. Shockey was 3rd on the
team with 57 receptions, so the Giants will need seldom-used Steve Smith to step
up on Sunday to help out a hobbled Plaxico Burress (ankle) & Amani Toomer (11
receptions for 154 yards & 3 touchdowns in 2 playoff games), who has been the
team's most consistent receiver so far during the playoffs.
The only way i can see the Giants putting up a lot of points on Sunday is if
they get a good game out of Brandon Jacobs, who has combined to rush 27 times
for just 88 yards during the playoffs with just a 3.3 yards-per-carry average,
which is the 2nd lowest average (LaDainian Tomlinson is 1st with 2.5
yards-per-carry) among all the remaining starting postseason backs.
Green Bay's defense will play a big factor in Sunday's game. The Packers are
tops among all remaining playoff teams by allowing just 172 YPG through the air
& a very measly 28 YPG against the run. Considering that Seattle was only able
to muster a pair of field goals after taking an early 14-0 first quarter lead, i
was very impressed with Green Bay's performance last week in blizzard-like snow
conditions.
The Packers will be just the second 2 seed to host the NFC Championship Game in
the past 27 years, as Ron Jaworski's Eagles also did so in 1980 when they beat
Dallas 20-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.
The Giants' road dominance will come to an end on Sunday, as the Packers will
advance to their 5th Super Bowl apperance in franchise history.
Packers 30, Giants 13.
Until then,
Mattie T
Sports Writer for BMS Radio Chicago
www.BMSRadio.com

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