Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: Jamie Lynch’s horse-by-horse guide to Sunday’s big race at Longchamp | Racing News

Sky Sports Racing’s senior form analyst Jamie Lynch gives his expert view on every contender for Europe’s most prestigious contest – the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, live on Sunday on Sky Sports Racing.

Giavellotto

Trainer: M Botti

Something of a wolf in sheep’s clothing, looking for a long time like a stayer with shortcomings, only to reinvent himself last year as a classy mile-and-a-half horse, culminating in the Hong Kong Vase in which his final furlong of 11.53 seconds was faster than any other winner that night, Ka Ying Rising and Romantic Warrior included.

Such performances are on request rather than on tap but he took care of then-Arc-favourite Kalpana at Kempton as a timely reminder of his speed and strength. His peak rating of 121 could get him far in a starless Arc, but it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll get his ground at ParisLongchamp, with so much rain incoming. It’s fairly futile to say that no six-year-old has ever won the race because so few have tried, but they do include Enable and Hukum from recent years.

White Birch

Trainer: JJ Murphy

Surged on soft ground in the spring of 2024 and defeated a version of Auguste Rodin in the Group One Tattersalls Gold Cup. Hasn’t been the same force since having a year out but his chances of a full-blown revival are at least raised by the forecast rainfall in Paris, and returning to a mile and a half – for the first time since 2023 – may well do something for him.

Arrow Eagle

Trainer: JC Rouget

Half-brother to the brilliant 2023 Arc winner Ace Impact and flashed at least a fraction of the family flair as he made his way up the grades in the first half of the year, taking the notable scalp of Sibayan for his fourth straight win, in the Group Two Grand Prix de Chantilly. But the bubble inflated over time, and even then barely into an Arc shape, went pop with a flop in the Prix Foy, albeit off a midsummer break.

Sosie

Trainer: A Fabre

The Fabre formula: elder equation. Of Andre Fabre’s eight Arc wins, the older pair – Subotica and Waldgeist – both went from the Ganay to Great Britain and then the Foy, the blueprint for Sosie, but he also did something that they didn’t, and most of this field couldn’t, by beating Sardinian Warrior in the Prix d’Ispahan.

Like Subotica, he was second in the Foy, but part of the Fabre formula is to peak for the final not the semi, and like Waldgeist we’ve yet to see all of Sosie’s stamina, the Foy the fastest of the trials but not truly run in itself, and remembering what a mile and a half did for him as a three-year-old. Whether it wins him the race depends on what the others come up with, but you can bet with some certainty that Sosie will run the race of his life on Sunday, with or without Maxim Guyon, who understandably can’t abandon Aventure.

Los Angeles

Trainer: AP O’Brien

Overtaken only by two in last year’s Arc as a three-year-old when he had Ryan Moore and momentum, neither in play this time around, instead a season of stagnation. His attitude which he once wore as a cape hasn’t covered the cracks in class since the summer, something still missing when only fourth in the Foy. Even for the maestro Aidan O’Brien, it’s hard to come up with the scenario or the stimulus that would regenerate Los Angeles in double-quick time since the trials, other than the return to softer ground stirring him into action.

Byzantine Dream

Trainer: T Sakaguchi

Quite the shapeshifter. Unthreatening in three classics in Japan as a three-year-old, then found his forte as a stayer, winning the Saudi version of the Melbourne Cup in February before going close in the two-mile Tenno Sho (Japan’s biggest staying prize) in May. Given his status and stamina, it was a surprise and a statement that he could do what he did, after an absence, in a deep renewal of the Prix Foy, in which he got the better of Sosie and Los Angeles among others. A strong-staying four-year-old who trialled in the Foy, he’s coded much more like the Japanese near-misses in the Arc (El Condor Pasa, Nakayama Festa and Orfevre) than his two compatriots.

Estrange

Trainer: D O’Meara

It’s conditional rather than categorical, but the way she tanks through good races with give in the ground strongly suggests she belongs in an archetypal autumn Arc – which this is shaping up to be, with the forecast swinging her way. Even away from the mud, on good to firm going at York, she almost went the distance in an unfair fight with heavyweight three-year-old Minnie Hauk, though the end result emphasised that Estrange is more an off-roader than a sportscar. But that may be just what’s needed on Sunday. She’s a feeling not a fact, an estimation not a calculation, and that’s what makes her the mystery box in the race.

Quisisana

Trainer: F-H Graffard

Another Francis-Henri Graffard graduate, taking a gap year but picking up where she left off and passing every exam with flying colours this season, fast-tracked to a Group One for the Prix Jean Romanet and teaching them a lesson, though the three-year-olds failed to fire and, for context, runner-up Survie was beaten further in the Vermeille next time. The Arc is another level again, and every horse bar one is rated higher than any rival she’s faced before, but Quisisana is in the habit of smashing ceilings, and she won her only start at a mile and a half by five lengths.

Kalpana

Trainer: AM Balding

Her foremost poster girl was Bluestocking, of whom she was ahead at every stage, until now, after a misstep in the September Stakes, and so her new inspiration is Treve, whose hitherto winless campaign in 2014 was no barrier to a second Arc. What price would Calandagan be if he was eligible? No bigger than 2/1, I’d say, and that’s relevant because Kalpana gave him all he could handle in the King George, when the pair of them returned red-hot closing splits, one of two Ascot performances – along with her Champions Fillies & Mares success (on soft ground) – which have all the ingredients of an Arc winner, but focusing on her finer points involves quite a bit of forgiveness by this stage.

Aventure

Trainer: C Ferland

As many as 15 Arc winners had been defeated in the race the previous year, a positive portent for Aventure who beat all bar Bluestocking in 2024 and, while her static rating doesn’t say so, her powers appear heightened this season, thinking about trials day as a whole when, in winning the Vermeille with a bit of a swagger, she put in the fastest furlong of any horse at the meeting (10.59 sec between two and one furlongs out), quicker even than Rosallion at the same stage of the Moulin.

She’s what’s known as a Q-car, or a sleeper in America, a vehicle with high-performance capabilities disguised within an unassuming exterior, Aventure small in stature and shuffly in style but able to really motor when it matters, and not the soft-ground slogger she once looked. She’s the percentage play in the Arc, and Maxime Guyon evidently thinks so, too, having partnered Sosie over her last year.

Daryz

Trainer: F-H Graffard

The conceptual contender, so called because the rest of the field are assessable via evidence and evaluation, whereas with him it’s more projection and conjecture, stemming from the fact it’s his first season, from the ‘what-if’ factor against Croix Du Nord in the Prix du Prince d’Orange, and from the potential transformative effect of a new trip.

By Sea The Stars and out of Daryakana, who won the Hong Kong Vase, Daryz is a good bet to be all the more powerful and potent over a mile and a half, tied into how he’s finished every race bar the disjointed Juddmonte at York. It says a lot that, for one so inexperienced, relatively speaking, the International and the Arc were put on his agenda, meaningful and magnified by the stable having 10 Group One wins in 2025.

Leffard

Trainer: JC Rouget

Early career mirrored Ace Impact, from the same stable, and though the Prix du Jockey Club was a washout (from a damaging double-figure draw), he justified his high regard by edging out Trinity College in the Grand Prix de Paris, a Group One in title if not talent this year. That’s still more relevant and reflective than the messy Prix Niel, in which he finished sixth but actually ranked first for the last 600m, in 34 seconds flat. All the same, the Arc appears a bridge too far.

Cualificar

Trainer: A Fabre

Second in the Prix du Jockey Club, first in the Prix Niel. That worked for Trempolino and Hurricane Run among Andre Fabre’s six three-year-old Arc winners, all of whom came via the Niel, the classic approach for the classical trainer, but each and every one of those were more accomplished and able than Cualificar who fits the formula, but does the formula really fit him? True, he did well to overcome traffic and trouble in the Niel, but it was the least of the trials in every sense, and he had previously been rolled over by Alohi Alii in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano. He has profile and the personnel of a primary player, but not the form nor the figures.

Hotazhell

Trainer: Mrs J Harrington

The fifth-best colt in Europe according to the two-year-old classification of 2024, following his Futurity win (from Delacroix no less). Winless so far this year, keeping only Group One company, but has gone sideways rather than backwards, finishing fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes last time. Not really bred nor designed for this far, as he’s keen by nature.

Croix Du Nord

Trainer: T Saito

The champion two-year-old in Japan, triggering talk of a triple crown, which came unstuck in the Japanese 2000 Guineas when beaten into second at odds-on, but he redeemed his reputation in the Japanese Derby, more functional than flashy but in his element with the mile and a half trip. Lucky to beat Daryz in his chosen trial, the mile-and-a-quarter Prix du Prince d’Orange, but the trip was barely far enough and the screws were barely tight enough, amid reports of some sloppy work beforehand.

He’s the fourth Japanese Derby winner to attempt to add an Arc that year, following on from Kizuna who did okay (fourth to Treve) and Makahiki and Do Deuce who did badly, but it’s a big deal to have him here, the myth greater than the math so far, though we haven’t seen the best of Croix Du Nord, only six races in.

Alohi Alii

Trainer: Hiroyasu Tanaka

Was tracking to be in the Championship rather than Premier League at home in Japan (four lengths adrift of Croix Du Nord in their 2000 Guineas), and therefore it was a bolt from the blue when he flew into France and ran riot in the Prix Guilaume d’Ornano, with Cualificar left trailing in his wake. Impressive as it was on the eye, the performance is perhaps easier explained than reproduced, setting a slow pace before sprinting away, and he definitely won’t be afforded the same advantages in a big-field Arc.

Gezora

Trainer: F-H Graffard

Good two-year-old for Nicholas Le Roch but becoming a very good three-year-old for Graffard, successful in the Prix de Diane with a surge reminiscent of her sire Almanzor. Never really laid a glove on Aventure when second in the Prix Vermeille, or so it seemed, but the sectionals make for interesting reading, revealing that Gezora was the faster in three of the last four furlongs, ridden more with the Arc in mind. In the absence of a dominant force, a developing force like Gezora carries an extra cache; and in the absence of Christophe Soumillon, Tom Marquand is more than a mere substitute.

Minnie Hauk

Trainer: AP O’Brien

A three-year-old filly in an Arc is more than a badge, it’s almost a philosophy, or a force of nature, as told by no fewer than 13 Arc winners. The known facts of her rating and record make her a contender, but the unknown factors of what still lies beneath makes her the headliner, a promise at York of a bigger storm brewing, and this is the first time ever that O’Brien has gone straight to an Arc from the Yorkshire Oaks, maybe a necessity after Whirl but just as likely a strategy and a statement, making more of a priority of what’s still considered to be the world’s greatest race, one which O’Brien has won only twice (from 58 attempts).

She’s got the feeling rather than the form of a top-notcher, but she’s a magic mix of Juddmonte pedigree and Ballydoyle production, and what an environment of expression for her, landing on what has to be said is an ordinary Arc.

Jamie Lynch’s verdict

It’s easy to see why Minnie Hauk and Aventure have top billing, but it feels like an Arc to take a swing at a bigger price, rather than trust one of the market leaders, in a field divided by category more than class. The light from the frontline fillies reflects a spotlight onto GEZORA, who has the same seductive profile if not power as Minnie Hauk, being a three-year-old filly, and the tracking data from the Prix Vermeille suggests she’s much more of a match for Aventure than their relationship that day.

Watch every race from Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe weekend at ParisLongchamp live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Saturday 4th and Sunday 5th October.