UFC Qatar preview and predictions: Arman Tsarukayn or Dan Hooker — who earns a title shot?

UFC’s promotional debut in Qatar goes down this Saturday, with a main event featuring a potential No. 1 contender pairing at lightweight. Arman Tsarukyan returns for the first time since botching his opportunity to rematch Islam Makhachev for the title in January, but standing in his way is the resurgent “Hangman,” Dan Hooker. A win for either could make them the frontrunner to challenge champion Ilia Topuria. Tsarukyan is also the No. 1-ranked contender in the UFC’s official rankings, drawing further importance to the matchup.

In the co-main event, the welterweight chaos continues as former champion Belal Muhammad looks to rebound against Ireland’s Ian Machado Garry. Everyone at 170 pounds is looking to stake their claim to challenge new champion Makhachev, and these two have their work cut out for them after epic performances from Michael Morales and Carlos Prates at UFC 322.

Advertisement

UFC Qatar feels like a Fight Night of old, delivering with name value across the entire main card and even some surprises on the prelims. Considering it’s a geographical debut, that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, despite the state of UFC in 2025. But overall, this should be a great night of fights.

👑 UFC Qatar lineup Crown grade: A-. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

155 pounds: Arman Tsarukyan (-500) vs. Dan Hooker (+375)

It’s somewhat insane to think neither Tsarukyan nor Hooker has fought in 2025. Both were scheduled to, but injuries halted their high-profile collisions with Makhachev and Justin Gaethje, respectively.

Advertisement

This feels like a fight that could have — and probably should have — happened sooner, though at least we’re getting it with each man in their best form and with plenty of layoff time. It’s no secret Hooker is as dangerous and rangy as strikers come at lightweight. His stabbing body kicks are great at breaking down opponents and helped him regain his current momentum in wins over Mateusz Gamrot, Jalin Turner and Claudio Puelles. When Hooker throws his punches, they’re always looking to close the show, and when he sustains return fire, he’s often too tough for his own good.

In terms of pure, refined technique, Tsarukyan holds the edge in every department. What he lacks in power and aggression, he makes up for with deadly precision — just ask Beneil Dariush or Joaquim Silva. Admittedly, the competition level difference between the two is starker than some may think, though Tsarukyan proved himself most in his win over Charles Oliveira and questionable loss to Gamrot.

To circle back to Hooker’s kicks, that massive weapon in his toolbox will actually be his detriment in this fight. Tsarukyan is too strong of a wrestler and will catch the shots hurled his way. Although Hooker has looked great in his latest three-fight win streak, they’ve all been wars, and his takedown defense has remained mostly the same — he’s just able to get away with giving up positions thanks to his activity. That might work for a while against someone like Tsarukyan, but not for a full 25 minutes.

It’s hard not to love someone as consistently entertaining as Hooker, but this is a tricky matchup for him.

Advertisement

Pick: Tsarukyan

170 pounds: Belal Muhammad (+220) vs. Ian Machado Garry (-275)

UFC Qatar essentially features a double main event. I know that’s a taboo term in the fight game, but swap the top two bouts and no one would complain.

(OK, I take that back. Someone will find a way to complain about anything in MMA.)

Muhammad vs. Garry is a championship-caliber bout and, coincidentally, could’ve been the title fight we saw this past May had Garry overcome Shavkat Rakhmonov in late 2024. While the odds favor Garry a bit too much for my liking, this does feel like the time Muhammad’s age is finally going to catch up with him.

Advertisement

At age 37, Muhammad remains a unique challenge for most with his well-rounded skill set. Despite his title loss to Jack Della Maddalena, Muhammad was in the bout through all five rounds. The concern, however, arises with his struggle to get Della Maddalena down and hold him there. Garry, 28, showcased awe-inspiring overall grappling in the aforementioned Rakhmonov loss, therefore I can only imagine Muhammad’s success coming from wall-and-stall control attempts. Regardless, applying pressure and closing the distance will be Muhammad’s best friend against the lengthy Irishman.

Garry may not carry the punching power of Della Maddalena, but he’s precise with his counters and uses his range well. For someone like Muhammad, who can play right into the bull role against a matador, this may be a tough ask. And again, the age and wear are concerning.

Pick: Garry

205 pounds: Volkan Oezdemir (-235) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+190)

Once upon a time, one could say the matchup between Volkan Oezdemir and Alonso Menifield pits two of the light heavyweight division’s most dangerous early-fight threats against one another — they haven’t been that as of late, though.

Advertisement

They present very different forms of danger. Oezdemir’s experience against top-tier opposition is the clear X-factor — he’s been in deep waters with champions and contenders for years, and his measured pressure, tight boxing, and willingness to absorb and return fire make him a tough man to overwhelm. When he’s sharp, Oezdemir thrives in the pocket with fast counters and an ability to punish entries. They call him “No Time” for a reason.

Menifield, however, is a different kind of test. He has always carried serious knockout power in both hands, but hasn’t found the death touch in years. What’s evolved most in his recent surge is his discipline. Menifield has become far more patient, using feints and controlled bursts instead of the reckless charges that hurt — and helped — him early in his career. His athleticism gives him the edge in explosiveness against most, but this matchup will ultimately come down to whether he can find his big moments before Oezdemir stabilizes the tempo.

If Oezdemir can drag the fight into extended exchanges or deeper rounds, his edge in durability and experience should take over. But early on, Menifield’s power is a legitimate equalizer capable of flipping the fight in an instant. With all that said, Menifield is somehow the older of the two. The edge goes to Oezdemir.

Pick: Oezdemir

170 pounds: Jack Hermansson (+200) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250)

This fight is so [expletive] weird. Never. I mean, never in my life did I expect we would see former middleweight contender Jack Hermansson taking on one of the sport’s best low-key killers, Myktybek Orolbai.

Advertisement

The fight should look ridiculous optically. There really isn’t much to dissect with this, and I don’t like the matchup whatsoever for Hermansson in his welterweight debut. He was a very large 185-pounder, and I can’t imagine he won’t be pretty depleted here — against a literal zombie of a marauder like Orolbai.

Hermansson is also entering the fight off suffering one of the nastiest knockouts of the year against Gregory Rodrigues. That was June. If humans were like cats and had nine lives, Hermansson lost at least two on that night.

Orolbai, 27, has walked through brutal wars in his UFC career thus far, surviving the fire they brought. He’s as durable as they come and packs a wallop of his own. Hermansson’s size will be his only hope to secure a submission win here, and even then, Orolbai is no slouch on the ground. This is a genuinely worrisome matchup for the 37-year-old Hermansson, despite his experience edge.

Pick: Orolbai

265 pounds: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+110) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-135)

This fight was supposed to be Sergey Spivac vs. Shamil Gaziev until two days ago, so fight fans were set up for failure regardless.

Advertisement

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is going across the world on days’ notice after his absurd win over Ante Delija at the start of the month. The elements around this proposition make it an enormous ask for “Salsa Boy,” and it’s somewhat of a wild move to make after his last two fights. Ultimately, he’s taking on a dude with the capability to smother him.

Gaziev is the prepared one here, and with his grappling base, he’s well-equipped to adjust quickly and get the job done. Don’t expect it to be exciting, though.

Pick: Gaziev

125 pounds: Tagir Ulanbekov (-200) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+165)

The oddsmakers’ — and UFC’s — disrespect to an all-time great like Kyoji Horiguchi sickens me, and is promotional malpractice on that front.

Advertisement

Like Kai Asakura — who entered as a RIZIN champion, debuting at flyweight, mind you — Horiguchi very easily should be walking right back into the UFC to receive a title shot. Instead, he’ll have to first get through the always tricky Tagir Ulanbekov.

This fight probably has the biggest discrepancy between the level of competition on all of UFC Qatar, as the 40-fight veteran and former dual-division champion Horiguchi has faced countless notable names. Presumably, the obstacle he’ll have to overcome is Ulanbekov’s strong grappling, hoping to nullify an always-active Horiguchi. The latter should be highlighted, though, as Ulanbekov will need to make sure he’s consistently offensive with strikes or submissions. Getting a hold of Horiguchi and keeping him in place are no easy tasks — unless you’re giant in comparison, like Patchy Mix was.

Horiguchi’s speed and lateral movement are unlike anyone else’s at 125 pounds, and he’s trained regularly with his fellow great champion, Alexandre Pantoja, for years now — making their potential clash all the more intriguing.

Pick: Horiguchi

Preliminary Notes

Aleksandre Topuria is back, aiming to keep his moment going after a strong UFC debut in February. He still has yet to show as much promise as his brother, but that bar is beyond the heights of almost anyone, it seems. Regardless, the elder Topuria is a fun prospect to watch.

Advertisement

Luke Riley is a debutant with plenty of buzz, coming over from Cage Warriors. Ismael Naurdiev seeks the first rebound win of his second UFC stint. And lastly, Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev should be a flyweight banger while it lasts.

Quick picks:

• Luke Riley (-285) def. Bogdan Grad (+230)

• Saygid Izagakhmaev (-300) def. Nicolas Dalby (+240)

• Alex Perez (+165) def. Asu Almabayev (-200)

• Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1200) def. Rafael Cerqueira (+750)

• Aleksandre Topuria (-155) def. Bekzat Almakhan (+110)

• Ismail Naurdiev (-135) def. Ryan Loder (+135)

• Nurullo Aliev (-300) def. Shaqueme Rock (+240)

• Marek Bujło (+165) vs. Denzel Freeman (-200)