KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: TOP FOUR SELECTIONS
- 3) FINAL GAMBIT
- 18) SOVEREIGNTY
- 8) JOURNALISM
- 14) TIZTASTIC
KENTUCKY DERBY 2025 FIELD ANALYSIS
1. CITIZEN BULL
This colt has speed and hails from the Bob Baffert barn (both positives), but he’ll have to be gunned from the rail and his ability to handle the 1¼-mile distance is doubtful. For Baffert worshipers only.
2. NEOEQUOS
He’s another that’s quick from the gate and the distance appears way beyond his scope. Likely to be a pace casualty, too. About as much chance as hitting the Lotto.
3. FINAL GAMBIT
Only in the Kentucky Derby can you find a live 30-1 shot from the high-octane Brad Cox barn. This rapidly developing colt is riding a two-race winning streak and owns a running style that should be well suited to the likely pace dynamics. There are questions, however. Will he bounce (regress) after his last victory and does he just relish Turfway’s Tapeta surface? The potential price offsets those unknowns.
4. RODRIGUEZ
Baffert No. 2. Capitalized on soft fractions to win the Wood Memorial. Would like him better if this was baseball.
5. AMERICAN PROMISE
Sat on the bench for seven weeks (not a good thing) after winning the Virginia Derby at minor-league Colonial Downs. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Derbys. This one won’t get him his fifth.
6. ADMIRE DAYTONA
Japan import No. 1. Not the first runner to jet in from Asia for the Derby. None have succeeded. Somebody should have told them the NASCAR race was two months ago.
7. LUXOR CAFÉ
Japan import No. 2. See Japan import No. 1. Tough spot to make U.S. debut.
8. JOURNALISM
Journalism has improved on the numbers in all five of his starts and was particularly impressive when overcoming a tough trip to take the Santa Anita Derby in his last. But horse racing is all about getting the most bang for your buck and this morning-line favorite won’t offer enough value. Obviously can win, but not with our money.
9. BURNHAM SQUARE
Burnham Square has a late-running style that could play well in field with ample speed and, more important, he’s likely to be upwards of double digits in the betting. Worth long look at long price.
10. GRANDE
Ran a creditable second when pace compromised in the Wood last out. The price will be right but this appears to be wishful thinking for owner Mike Repole, who’s yet to hit the board in the Derby with seven previous starters.
11. FLYING MOHAWK
Is riding a forward-moving line on the numbers and has the sit-and-pounce running style and juicy odds we’re looking for. Must use in exotics.
12. EAST AVENUE
Speed is always dangerous but this one appears to be compromised by the abundance of front-runners in the field. Mixed message.
13. PUBLISHER
Can he join Buchanan (1883), Sir Barton (1919) and Brokers Tip (1933) as the only maidens to win the Kentucky Deby? I’m not betting on it.
14. TIZTASTIC
Was a clear-cut winner of the Louisiana Derby last time and it’s worth noting that race is just a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby. Improving, beefy-priced and worthy of a wager.
15. RENDER JUDGMENT
Has never won more than a maiden race. I’ve rendered my judgment: We will pass.
16. COAL BATTLE
Rattled off four straight wins before a well-beaten third in the Arkansas Derby last time. Considering he’s 30-1 on the morning line, we’re not against tossing him in some gimmick plays.
17. SANDMAN
This one captured the Arkansas Derby last out after falling victim to Coal Battle two starts back. With just a 6-1 morning line and Jose Ortiz in the saddle he’s got the look of an underlay at post time.
18. SOVEREIGNTY
Makes just his third start as a 3-year-old but he’s delivered solid efforts in both those outings. Love that he was a last-to-first, five-length winner in his lone start at Churchill Downs. Don’t love his potential short price but this improving colt can easily wear the roses.
19. CHUNK OF GOLD
Has finished second in Grade 2 stakes in last two starts and has all the earmarks of a horse that will totally fall below the radar in the betting. Get on line at the IRS window for a “signer” if he hits the board.
20. OWEN ALMIGHTY
Even the Almighty himself couldn’t get this one in the winner’s circle. Hasn’t got a prayer.
ALSO ELIGIBLE
21. BAEZA
Named after one of the greatest jockeys (Braulio Baeza) of the 1960s. Will need a scratch to get into race, but this up-and-comer must be added to the list of contenders if he escapes the AE list.
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