1 runner is most formidable in Shoemaker Mile

Laurie

Ashley

1. Seal Team (GB)

Seal Team returns from a four-month furlough fit and ready to bring the war to his rivals. Although Seal Team hasn’t entered the winner’s circle since 2023, he’s hit the board in seven of nine starts. Richard Mandella has trained the 5-year-old son of War Front with a series of four- to six-furlong works. Seal Team has tactical speed and will settle behind the pace, but post position 1 isn’t the place to be. Pass.

Trained by Richard Mandella, competitive Seal Team hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since the Twilight Derby (G2) in November 2023. He raced only three times in 2024, finishing off the board in the Lure Stakes and the Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) before wrapping up the year with a close third in the San Gabriel (G2). He kicked off 2025 with a runner-up effort to El Potente in the Thunder Road (G3). He likes the Santa Anita turf, with a 5: 2-1-1 record, but has never won at a mile, though he’s hit the board twice in three attempts. He’s recorded triple-digit Equibase speed figures in his last six starts, including a 121 when grabbing fifth in a blanket finish in the Seabiscuit Handicap. J.J. Hernandez takes over from Umberto Rispoli. Exotics.

2. Atitlan

Atitlan cuts back to a mile after two victories going farther. He earned a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed Rating in the 1 1/2-mile San Luis Rey (G3) and he returned to capture the Charles Whittingham (G2) by a head in a thrilling three-way finish. But his speed rating dropped 15 points, and he earned a 78 late-pace figure, the second-lowest since he switched to turf. The John Shirreffs trainee turns around in 23 days, and if he’s kept close enough to the pace, Atitlan could earn a lower exotics spot.

Trained by John Shirreffs, Atitlan cuts back in distance after winning the 12-furlong San Luis Rey (G3) and the 10-furlong Charles Whittingham (G2) in his last two starts. He’s 2: 1-0-1 at a mile, and three of his four wins have been at a distance of nine-plus furlongs. He has twice finished behind both Formidable Man and King of Gosford. Laurie brought up the 23-day turnaround, and Race Lens shows that Shirreffs is 10% wins with a 63% in-the-money with runners off an eight- to 30-day layoff during the last year. Antonio Fresu has the mount. Exotics.

3. Seminole Chief

Seminole Chief ships in from Gulfstream, where the 4-year-old began a burgeoning turf career in January. Seminole Chief captured the listed Appleton Stakes in his last start over an off-form Major Dude. That one captured the Pegasus Invitational Turf (G1) but hasn’t won since. The Jack Sisterson trainee’s late-pace figures are in the high 70s and mid 80s. He’s never faced graded company on the lawn, and although he’s breezing well at Palm Meadows, Seminole Chief appears up against it. Pass.

Trained by Jack Sisterson, Seminole Chief enters off a 3/4-length victory in the Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream Park. This colt switched to turf this year and is now 3: 2-0-1 on the surface. Sisterson doesn’t often ship his runners to the West Coast, sending out 12 trainees to 14 starts at Santa Anita Park with 0% wins and a 29% in-the-money clip in the last five years. Seminole Chief’s Equibase speed figures have improved with each start this year, and the front-runner gets a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. I could see him getting a piece of the pie, but I’m going to pass.

4. King of Gosford

King of Gosford has a win–lose cycle dating back to last October. After capturing the Mathis Mile (G2) last year, the Philip D’Amato trainee kicked off 2025 with a runner-up finish in the American Stakes (G3). King of Gosford chased the pacesetter Cabo Spirit around the oval and made a mild bid in the stretch, but he settled for the minor award, bested 3/4 length. Besides a disastrous trip in last year’s Oceanside Stakes, where he placed an uncharacteristic seventh, King of Gosford hasn’t finished off the board since shipping to California last spring. The American is a traditional prep for the Shoemaker Mile, and the previous two victors of the Shoemaker won the American. Contender.

Trained by Philip D’Amato, King of Gosford enters off a 3/4- length defeat to Cabo Spirit in the American (G3). It was his first start off a four-month layoff, so not quite having enough punch in the stretch is forgivable. He’s never been off the board at Santa Anita and is 4: 2-1-0 at a mile. King of Gosford has defeated Atitlan twice and has twice been beaten by Formidable Man. D’Amato is 16% wins with a 46% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Flavien Prat has the call. Contender.

5. Formidable Man

The aptly monikered Formidable Man conquered Zio Jo, Cabo Spirit, King of Gosford, Mi Hermano Ramon and Atitlan in four of his last five starts, and Formidable Man’s only off-the-board finish was in the Pegasus Invitational Turf. After a thrilling up-the-rail victory in the Frank Kilroe Mile in March, the Mike McCarthy trainee had a three-month break and runs well off the layoff. The McCarthy and Rispoli team couldn’t be any hotter, and Rispoli seeks a back-to-back victory in the Shoemaker Mile. Contender.

Trained by Mike McCarthy, Formidable Man enters off a victory in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile, defeating Zio Jo and Cabo Spirit in the process. As Laurie stated, he’s also beaten a few others in this field. He’s earned triple-digit Equibase speed figures in four of his last five starts. Formidable Man likes the Santa Anita turf and the mile distance of this race. McCarthy is 21% wins with a 46% in-the-money clip with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Preakness-winning jockey Umberto Rispoli has the return call. Contender.

6. Zio Jo

Zio Jo had a heartbreaking half-length defeat in the Frank Kilroe Mile blanket finish at the hooves of Formidable Man. It was an excellent effort in his first Grade 1 contest. Next out, Zio Jo may have regressed slightly in the American Stakes. He broke slightly slow and had to steady slightly early in the race but had a cushy rail trip the entire way. Zio Jo simply didn’t have the late kick of the three who finished in front of him, checking in fourth, 3 1/2 lengths behind Cabo Spirit. The Doug O’Neill trainee’s speed ratings are in the high 80s to low 90s, as are his late pace figures. He has tactical speed and would be very competitive if he returns to his Kilroe Mile form. Exotics.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Zio Jo enters off a fourth-place finish in the American Stakes, finishing behind Cabo Spirit and King of Gosford. He’s also seen the hindquarters of Formidable Man, Seal Team and Mi Hermano Ramon in his last four starts. He has earned triple-digit Equibase speed figures in his last eight starts. O’Neill is 12% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year. Jockey Kyle Frey has the return call. Exotics.

7. Mi Hermano Ramon

Mi Hermano Ramon was last seen finishing a close fifth as the favorite in the Kilroe Mile. He’s a solid sort who generally hits the board but seldom wins. The Mark Glatt trainee has previously shown tactical speed. With consistent speed ratings in the 90s, he could surprise if they go fast early. Exotics.

Trained by Mark Glatt, Mi Hermano Ramon was last seen finishing off the board in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile as the odds-on favorite. The 5-year-old gelding has the field-best Equibase speed figure with the 122 he earned in winning the Seabiscuit Handicap in November. But the fact that he’s been off the board in both starts this year is concerning. The upside there is that he was beaten by only 2 1/4 lengths in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and 1 1/4 lengths in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Glatt is 16% wins with a 42% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Hector Isaac Berrios, who was aboard in the Seabiscuit, has the call. Exotics.

8. Cabo Spirit

Cabo Spirit set a comfortable pace in the American Stakes, then finished full of run and easily ruled over King of Gosford, earning his third 91 Brisnet Speed Rating in a row. But the knock against this George Papaprodromou trainee is that he’s never had back-to-back wins and the last time he returned to hit the board after a victory was in 2022. The free-running gelding does his best work on the front end but will have to contend with Goliad to his outside and possibly King of Gosford and Seminole Chief to his inside. He previously has been bested by Formidable Man, Zio Jo and Seal Team, plus Mi Hermano Ramon beat him twice. Pass.

Trained by George Papaprodromou, Cabo Spirit enters off a 3/4-length, gate-to-wire victory in the American Stakes. Prior to that, he settled for third in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile in that blanket finish and was off the board in his seasonal bow in the Thunder Road (G3). I think Laurie nicely summed up Cabo Spirit’s chances of finding the winner’s circle on Monday. Papaprodromou is 6% wins with a 16% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year. Frankie Dettori has the mount. Pass.

9. Goliad

A confirmed pacesetter, Goliad folded like a $2 lawn chair in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, Shoemaker Mile and Kilroe Mile, all Grade 1 events. Goliad sets a lively early pace in his races and is competitive against lesser opponents. Perhaps he’s a rabbit for his stablemate Seal Team. Pass.

Trained by Richard Mandella, Goliad is making his first start since finishing ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The 8-year-old is 0-for-3 in Grade 1 events and has somehow managed to avoid facing any of his fellow entrants in previous starts. Mandella is 21% wins with a 48% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year. Mike Smith takes over from Flavien Prat, who is aboard King of Gosford instead. Pass.

                Laurie

           Ashley

5. Formidable Man

5. Formidable Man

4. King of Gosford

4. King of Gosford

2. Atitlan

6. Zio Jo

6. Zio Jo

1. Seal Team