Top Plays for the 2026 Valero Texas Open

The PGA TOUR’s 2026 season rolls on with the Valero Texas Open. At this event, DraftKings users can play in PGA Pick6 contests for all four rounds. If you’re new, Pick6 is a single-user daily fantasy game where you select players to go over or under the totals.

Players teeing things up at the Valero Texas Open will take on TPC San Antonio this week. This is a longer Par 72 with some quirky holes that traverse through Texas parkland and brush. Winning scores for this event fluctuate, and last year, poor weather meant the winner finished at just -9 over four rounds. This week, wind and some potential thunderstorms are in the forecast, which could cause a similar situation.

I reviewed additional statistics and course dynamics in the Valero Texas Open PGA Cheat Sheet and included some notes on the course below for Pick6 research.

“TPC San Antonio, designed by Greg Norman, has hosted this event since 2010. The course is set up longer than average for the PGA TOUR, at 7,435 yards, and features a mix of tree-lined fairways and some open, almost links-style driving areas where the Texas brush comes into play. There are four par 5s, but three of them come in right around 600 yards, and none guarantee a great shot at birdie. Fairways are narrow, and driving accuracy stats are always well below the TOUR average, making accuracy almost as important as length off the tee. However, going a bit off the fairway generally won’t crush a golfer, since the course plays wide open in many spots and has almost no water.

It should be noted that two of the past seven winners ranked 66th (Andrew Landry in 2018) and 78th (Jordan Spieth in 2021) in driving accuracy for the week of their win. 2024 runner-up Denny McCarthy also gained less than 1.0 strokes OTT last year. 2025 winner Brian Harman ranked only T44 in strokes gained off the tee and T34 in driving accuracy. He made up for that with a great week with his irons (+6.1 strokes) and on the greens (+5.1 strokes putting).

The overseeded greens here are known to be tough, too — players have to navigate lots of sharp falloffs and contours — making them a good warm-up for Augusta. Greens in Regulation percentages tend to be 5-to-10% lower than at the average TOUR stop. This plays into the hands of the best ball-strikers in the game — Corey Conners led the field in GIR stats here in 2019 and 2023, and Spieth gained +7.4 Strokes on Approach for the week in 2021. Harman was also T11 in GIR% last season.

Scrambling tends to be a more neutral stat, as top finishers gain the most from ball-striking and timely putting. Getting hot from the 5-to-15-foot range with the putter at Valero has been a hallmark of past winners.”

As of now, we have Round 1 totals up on the Pick6 site for play, so that’s where we’ll be focusing. The players out first are expected to have slightly better conditions with winds picking up throughout the day. If you’re targeting stroke totals or birdie-or-better totals, keep that in mind. 

Let’s break down a few of my favorite plays for Round 1.

Top DraftKings Pick6 Plays for the Valero Texas Open

Ludvig Aberg More Than 11.5 Greens in Regulation

Aberg enters this week coming off a near miss at the PLAYERS. The Swede has demonstrated excellent play over his last two starts, but has encountered stretches of poor holes that have derailed him late in tournaments. Still, his top game isn’t far off, and he enters this week ranked 12th in GIR%, having started strong in his last two events with a 66 at Bay Hill and a 69 at Sawgrass.

This week’s course features four par 5s, which should give a longer hitter like Aberg more opportunities for GIRs. His ball flight also makes it easier to hold greens on the longer par 3s. Overall, I think this number is slightly too low, and I see Aberg more in the 12+ range for GIR on this course. With his form peaking, there’s no reason not to be bullish on him for Round 1, and a More Than on his GIR total is a great way to play him in Pick6 lineups.

Keith Mitchell More Than 3.5 birdies or better

Mitchell has played strong golf in 2026. He’s made nine consecutive cuts and finished T14 last week in Houston. The veteran is still looking for his second PGA victory after surprising everyone by winning at PGA National in 2018. Given his current ball-striking form, that second win might not be far away. Last week, Mitchell gained over 4.0 strokes on approach and off the tee, and he likely would have been in contention if he had handled the larger greens in Houston better over the weekend.

Although he’s not necessarily an elite birdie-maker, he’s definitely been above average in that category this season. Mitchell is ranked 35th in Birdie or Better Percentage and, because of the importance of accuracy on these greens, should get plenty of good looks in Round 1, especially with the decent weather conditions on Thursday compared to the rest of the week.

Si Woo Kim Less Than 70.5 strokes

Kim looks like a strong contender for this week’s event, especially on a course where he has previously performed well. He finished T13 in 2022 and was close to winning in 2019, ending that week at T4. Kim has also demonstrated his skill at other challenging venues like Sawgrass and PGA Stadium, where wind often causes chaos, making precise iron and tee shots crucial.

Despite an underwhelming week at the PLAYERS, he is currently second in tee-to-green statistics for the season and remains strong in all the categories that matter for a tougher, accuracy-driven venue like TPC San Antonio. Since he underperformed a bit at the PLAYERS, I’d also rate him as someone who would love to start fast this week and get in some solid prep for Augusta. With a 70.5 total and good conditions expected for Thursday, it’s reasonable to expect him to shoot a round in the 60s on his opening 18 holes.

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