Week 9 delivered another reminder that a favorable matchup guarantees nothing in fantasy football. The Lions sleepwalked through a smash spot against the Dolphins, Jonathan Taylor was quiet again and the Saints and Browns needed overtime to produce usable quarterback lines.
There was good news for managers who were paying attention. Joe Burrow keeps playing at an elite level, and Darren Waller gave the Panthers a tight end worth a weekly look.
Before making any moves, check where each of these players sits in the latest RotoWire fantasy football rankings, then work through the takeaways below.
Colts: Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs Could Use a Fresh Start
Jonathan Taylor deserves much better than this, and I am hoping the Colts can facilitate a trade that gets him out of Indianapolis.
Despite facing a Dallas defense that has been torched on a weekly basis, Daniel Jones simply cannot put any type of pressure on an opposing defense. As a result, Taylor needs either a big play or a touchdown to have much fantasy relevance these days.
Neither happened in this contest. Taylor ended the day with 64 scrimmage yards, although he did catch five passes.
On a side note, Josh Downs would be well served by finding a new destination. He may be a smaller receiver, but he has shown that when he is leaned on in a passing attack, he can be extremely productive.
If Downs lands on a team with a good passing attack, where he can be a secondary receiving option, he may become a fantasy factor immediately. If you are able to make a trade at any time in your league, a preemptive move for Downs may be wise if you do not have to give up very much in return.
If you make the deal and the Colts never move him, make sure the player you send back is not one who will hurt your season. As we know, if Downs remains in Indianapolis, his fantasy value is extremely limited.
Trade rumors can break at any moment, so keep the RotoWire NFL news page open to see whether the Colts make a move.
Bengals: Joe Burrow Is a Fantasy MVP Candidate
Like most of the fantasy community, I spent plenty of time talking about Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Obviously, I do not ignore the Joe Burrow conversation, but I do not think I take enough time to give him the respect he deserves.
Over the last 10 quarters of football, Burrow has been playing at an elite level. He came into this game trailing Josh Allen by just a little more than one fantasy point per game, which shows how solid he has been.
The Bengals appeared to take their foot off the proverbial gas in the second half of an easy victory over the Falcons. Had that not happened, Burrow could have had an even bigger day than the four total touchdowns and 271 passing yards he achieved.
The only fantasy advice I will provide here is that if you are in a league where most teams carry a backup quarterback, I would strongly consider picking up Joe Flacco. If Burrow misses any time, you will still have a reliable fantasy starter.
Packers: The Passing Game Dominates
In recent games, the Packers offense did not look great against the Dallas and Detroit defenses. I was definitely concerned because Green Bay has a one-dimensional offense due to its inability to run the football.
When I saw the Week 9 matchup against the Patriots, I assumed the Green Bay receivers would be locked up by New England’s two strong outside cornerbacks, which would potentially limit the offense.
That could not have been further from the truth. The trio of Jordan Love, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden had one of the best performances we will see from any trio on any team this entire season.
The game was effectively over at halftime, and the Packers continued to pour it on in the second half. I definitely learned my lesson here.
I will not be questioning the Packers offense anytime soon. They are playing at such an elite level that they should help fantasy managers through the rest of the season.
Patriots: Drake Maye’s Weekly Matchups Matter
I remember early in the season when Drake Maye was off to a terrible start. He was even dropped in some fantasy leagues. Then he went on a massive hot streak that lasted the better part of four weeks, and everybody remembered last season’s breakout star.
Still, a look at the particular matchups showed that when Maye had a great matchup he played great, but when he had a difficult one, he typically performed well below expectations. Playing the Packers was a really good litmus test for this offense.
However, without the two starting wide receivers they expected to have in their lineup all season, it is fair to say Maye does not really have the weapons to challenge a good defense. Although his overall fantasy numbers ended up looking great, those who watched the game realize the production was welcome but came completely from the Patriots getting blown out by Green Bay.
It should be noted that the Patriots’ offensive line has suffered its share of injuries and is not a very effective unit right now. Partly due to that line, the rushing attack is not very consistent.
Ultimately, Maye will continue to be a strong weekly fantasy starter, but we will need to pay close attention to the specific weekly matchups. There are weeks in which he may be closer to a borderline starter than a locked-in automatic option.
Panthers: Darren Waller Steals the Show From the Wide Receivers
Although Bryce Young had a strong fantasy performance with 276 yards and three touchdowns against Denver, his primary receiving weapons did not get the same benefit. Fortunately, Tetairoa McMillan caught a late touchdown to end the day with four catches for 56 yards and the score.
However, Jalen Coker caught four passes for 29 yards, while tight end Darren Waller easily led the team with eight catches, 90 yards and a touchdown.
Waller has been very hit or miss to this point in fantasy. But with so much inconsistency at tight end, his upside and red zone ability make him worth taking a chance on if he is available on the waiver wire.
As for McMillan and Coker, we probably just need to live with the inconsistencies that come with the Carolina passing attack. Going into the season, I reminded fantasy managers that McMillan had fewer than 50 yards in half of his games last season. This year is a fairly similar situation, as he has 58 yards or fewer in half of his games.
Fantasy managers are likely to remember the huge game McMillan had against the Lions earlier this season. After this solid performance against a very good Denver defense, those rostering him may want to see what they can get in return in a trade.
Jets: Geno Smith’s Passing Attack Remains a Weekly Gamble
It is really difficult to count on players from the Jets in fantasy football. With Garrett Wilson out with a concussion and the Chiefs missing their top two cornerbacks, this looked like an excellent spot for the passing attack.
But as I often caution fantasy managers who are betting on Geno Smith, the bad games can come at any time. Despite a massive game last week, Adonai Mitchell did not catch any of his seven targets.
At least Omar Cooper showed up with eight catches for 58 yards on 11 targets.
As expected, the backfield was a split between Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. However, Hall basically doubled Allen’s touch count, though I wonder if the split would have been closer had Allen not lost a fumble.
Based on the workload, Hall appears to be a mid-range RB2, while Allen is back to being a flex option.
Cooper has had three good games in the last four, but with Wilson likely to return soon, he is a sell-high candidate in fantasy.
Lions: Limited Production in a Smash Spot
NFL teams are often much closer in talent than we could ever imagine. That explains why so many big underdogs cover the point spread, and why it is so difficult to advance deep into a season in Survivor contests.
As close as teams are, I also think the human aspect of the game plays a massive role. I call it the subliminal factor.
All week during practices, the coaching staff tells players that the opponent is dangerous and capable of winning the game. Ultimately, I think the players often realize how much better than the opponent they assume they may be. That often leads to them not playing with the aggressive edge we expect from them.
That brings me to the Lions offensively sleepwalking in a victory over the Dolphins. Miami has had a scrappy defense all year, but it is definitely not the type of unit that should be giving a team with so many elite weapons any resistance.
Jared Goff threw for 170 yards and an interception. Jameson Williams caught one pass for 11 yards, while Sam LaPorta caught four passes for 32 yards. Fantasy managers had to be extremely frustrated with those results.
Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown without catching a pass. Although it was an acceptable performance, he was extremely disappointing for fantasy.
The only player to come out of this game in decent shape was Amon-Ra St. Brown, who caught eight passes for 86 yards. The only real takeaway is that even when we think we have a smash spot in fantasy, it often fails to materialize.
Browns and Saints: Good Things Can Happen in Five-Quarter Games
Those who started Shedeur Sanders or Tyler Shough in the Saints versus Browns game must have been thrilled when it went to overtime. For much of the contest, it was a battle of field goals, and it appeared neither quarterback would post anything close to a respectable fantasy performance.
But we love when games go off the rails late. Between drives late in the fourth quarter and overtime, both Sanders and Shough ended up with very solid performances.
Still, the majority of this game showed the flaws in both quarterbacks that we have discussed consistently since the preseason. The lesson is that a favorable game environment and an extra quarter of action can inflate a fantasy line without completely changing the narrative.
Between the late part of regulation and overtime, the trio of KC Concepcion, Harold Fannin and Juwan Johnson each ended up with productive days when it appeared each of them was headed for a bitter disappointment. If you were on the winning side of any of that, this is why we love fantasy football.
Random Week 9 Thoughts
While watching all of the games, I had a few random observations that I am sure many of you were thinking about as well.
First, how did Van Jefferson end up leading the Commanders in receiving with five catches, 58 yards and a touchdown? I know Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown were out and the Rams were without their top two cornerbacks, but it still blew me away to see Jefferson lead the team.
Then, Isaiah Likely was fortunate that J.J. McCarthy had to leave the game with a hip injury for a period of time. Jameis Winston came in and delivered a touchdown pass to Likely, which salvaged Likely’s fantasy day.
Many fantasy managers started Devin Singletary knowing that volume is king in fantasy football. Despite touching the ball 23 times, the running back ended the day with 39 yards.
After talk that the Chargers would begin to get Omarion Hampton more work, the rug was completely pulled out on that idea, as Hampton, Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell continued to function in a three-man committee.
Once George Pickens was ruled out before the early games began, Ryan Flournoy created significant excitement among fantasy managers that he would build on the great work he had been doing as a third receiver in Dallas. Even though Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, Flournoy ended the day with two catches for 53 yards.
Committee backfields and shifting receiver rooms are easier to judge with the lineup in front of you, so check the RotoWire NFL depth charts before you make your next move.
Bottom Line: Week 9 Takeaways
Burrow is the clearest positive story of the week. He has been elite for 10 quarters, the Bengals eased off in the second half and Flacco is the insurance policy in leagues where most teams carry a backup quarterback.
Cooper and McMillan are the sell-high candidates. Cooper’s strong stretch comes with Wilson likely to return soon, and McMillan has 58 yards or fewer in half of his games.
For managers looking for a lower-risk move, Waller is the waiver wire name to pursue at a position full of inconsistency. The Lions are the reminder that even a smash spot can fail to materialize.
With trade hopes in Indianapolis and committee backfields in flux, the RotoWire NFL news page is the best place to track each situation, and the latest fantasy football rankings show how every move changes the picture.
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