The road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby has been marked by a series of U-turns, with an unusual number of 3-year-old stakes winners going the other way in subsequent races.
Horses who’ve won qualifying races and are still actively chasing spots in the May 2 Kentucky Derby are, by my count, 2 for 19 in subsequent starts – no better than random results, and worse than normal for this stage of a Derby season. Paladin has won a pair of Grade II races, inspiring enough confidence to make the Chad Brown-trained colt the 8-1 favorite in the mid-March round of Derby future betting. The only other double stakes winner, Riley Mott’s Incredibolt, has a Grade III victory and an ungraded stakes victory but turned in a terrible effort in between.
The ranks of repeat winners should increase on the next two Saturdays when the five biggest Kentucky Derby preps are held in Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, New York and California, the last being the Santa Anita Derby on April 4.
The $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday features Commandment (Flavien Prat riding) trying to repeat his Fountain of Youth Stakes victory over Chief Wallabee (Junior Alvarado), while Nearly (John Velazquez) seeks to replicate his romp in the Holy Bull Stakes and The Puma (Javier Castellano) looks to follow up his upset in the Tampa Bay Derby. Chief Wallabee is the 2-1 morning-line favorite, Commandment 5-2, Nearly 3-1 and The Puma 9-2 among eight expected runners.
The $1.5 million Arkansas Derby on Saturday has Renegade (Irad Ortiz Jr.) listed as a 3-2 favorite in a field of nine to repeat his Sam F. Davis Stakes win in Tampa; Silent Tactic (Cristian Torres) 5-2 to bounce back from the second-place finish that came after his Southwest Stakes win; Napoleon Solo (Kendrick Carmouche) 6-1 to regain his Champagne Stakes-winning form after a flop in the Fountain of Youth; and Bob Baffert-trained Litmus Test (Francisco Arrieta) 6-1 to look like the Los Alamitos Futurity winner instead of the Rebel Stakes beaten favorite.
Paladin is pointing for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4, the same day as the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby.
Nominees for the Santa Anita Derby are led by Baffert’s Potente and Cherokee Nation, plus Intrepido, So Happy and Robusta, with Express Kid the top likely out-of-towner.
Potente will come in off a win in the San Felipe Stakes. That should make him the horse to beat in the $500,000 Santa Anita Derby. Or, the way things have been going on the Kentucky Derby trail this year, it makes him a horse with a chance to go backward.
BACK IN ACTION
Familiar names return in a pair of Grade III stakes at Santa Anita this weekend.
The 5-year-old mare Rashmi, sidelined since promising performances in early 2025 for trainer Jonathan Thomas, will be ridden by Kazushi Kimura for the first time when she faces Antifona (Tiago Pereira), Hannah Buckle (Armando Ayuso) and Miss Artois (Juan Hernandez) in Saturday’s Wilshire Stakes at 1 mile on turf.
Seven-year-old Subsanador (Mike Smith) ends an 18-month layoff since his $1 million California Crown victory for Richard Mandella, and 5-year-old Stronghold (Antonio Fresu) tries again for his first win since the 2024 Santa Anita Derby, when they face Baffert’s Cornucopian (Hernandez) and Getaway Car (Florent Geroux) in Sunday’s 7-furlong San Carlos Stakes.
FARTHER AFIELD
Some would-be contenders are skipping the Dubai World Cup card on Saturday because of connections’ concerns about conflict in the Middle East, but the $12 million main event remains strong with Japan’s Forever Young (Ryusai Sakei) odds-on against U.S. representatives Magnitude (Jose Ortiz) and Hit Show (Geroux) and six others.
Five-year-old Forever Young, the Breeders’ Cup Classic champion at Del Mar in November, can run his winning streak to four races in four different countries after claiming the $20 million Saudi Cup in February.
ON THE MOVE
Baffert’s decision to move more horses from California to Kentucky this spring is a continuation of a trend that has seen many of the top 10 trainers here sending more runners to rich races in other states for a few years now.
Doug O’Neill, like Baffert, said this week that Santa Anita remains his favorite track, but it’s impossible to pass up opportunities at tracks that can supplement purses with casino revenue.
“Until we get our act together out here, you want to keep your toe in the water there for sure,” O’Neill said. “In my nightly prayers, someone will come in and magically make Arcadia great again – we’ll all be wearing our MAGA hats around here.”
P. VAL RIDES AGAIN?
Pat Valenzuela is named on five horses at Turf Paradise in Phoenix next Monday through Wednesday in what would be the 63-year-old’s first competitive rides since 2016.
Valenzuela rode 1989 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Sunday Silence and seven Breeders’ Cup winners – among 4,372 victories overall – but his career was derailed by repeated absences and suspensions stemming from substance abuse. He was denied by California officials in several bids to have his jockey license reinstated here.
SHORTENING UP
• Julien Leparoux is the recipient of the 2026 George Woolf Award after a vote by fellow jockeys nationwide. A ceremony honoring the Kentucky-based Leparoux will be scheduled at Santa Anita in April. Named for the Seabiscuit rider who as killed in a 1946 fall at Santa Anita, the award is given annually by the track to honor a jockey’s on- and off-the-track distinction.
• RIP Francisco “Paco” Mena, who was the leading jockey on the original half-mile oval at the old Los Angeles County Fair racetrack in Pomona and regular rider for Telly’s Pop and Double Discount. Mena died March 18 in Rosarito, Mexico, the Daily Racing Form reported.
• The Jockey Club released Equine Injury Database figures showing 1.07 deaths per 1,000 starts at North American thoroughbred racetracks in 2025, the lowest rate in the 17 years of the EID. “The thoroughbred industry should be very proud of the work done to improve the safety of its athletes and to know that the initiatives supported by the Jockey Club and so many other organizations are proving to be effective,” the University of Bristol’s Tim Parkin, one of the professors who analyzed the data, said in the announcement. “A (47%) drop in the rate of fatality since 2009 is impressive, and it’s especially encouraging to see (one-mile) and shorter races at historic lows.”
• Sadler puts Full Serrano (Antonio Fresu) back at his favorite distance in the Grade III Oaklawn Mile on Saturday’s Arkansas Derby undercard, trying to snap a three-race losing streak for the now-7-year-old, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile upsetter.
• In Los Alamitos quarter-horse racing, Beuteeful (Rodrigo Sigala Vallejo) brings the top trial time and a 6-for-8 record into Saturday night’s Grade I Los Alamitos Oaks.
• Santa Anita has added racing on two Thursdays, April 2 and 30, to make up for early-season rainouts.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
SANTA ANITA LEADERS
(Through Sunday)
Jockeys / Wins
Emisael Jaramillo / 38
Juan Hernandez / 34
Kazushi Kimura / 34
Armando Ayuso / 29
Antonio Fresu / 19
Tiago Pereira / 18
Hector Berrios / 17
Umberto Rispoli / 15
Mirco Demuro / 15
Edwin Maldonado / 14
Trainers / Wins
Doug O’Neill / 31
Mark Glatt / 24
Bob Baffert / 22
George Papaprodromou / 20
Jeff Mullins / 19
Michael McCarthy / 18
Phil D’Amato / 16
Steve Knapp / 13
Tim Yakteen / 9
Leonard Powell / 9
UPCOMING STAKES
SANTA ANITA
Saturday
• $100,000, Grade III Wilshire Stakes, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, 1 mile on turf
Sunday
• $100,000, Grade III San Carlos Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs
LOS ALAMITOS
Saturday
• $450,000, Grade I Los Alamitos Oaks, quarter-horse 3-year-old fillies, 400 yards
Sunday
• $225,000, Grade II El Primero Del Ano Derby, quarter-horse 3-year-olds, 400 yards
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