As we discussed last week, Week 1 of the NFL season nearly broke the record books. The league combined for 791 points across 16 games, which tied a mark set back in 2012. In fact, 11 of 32 teams scored 30 or more points; yet, that did not hold in Week 2. The league-wide scoring pace has settled back down closer to 22.5 points allowed per team per game. We saw the Bears go from scoring 59 points in Week 1 to just three points against Minnesota in Week 2, while Carolina’s defense, which allowed those 59 points, held Atlanta to just three. That volatility should continue in the first few weeks of the season.
We bounced back with our rankings in Week 2, getting six of the top 10 defenses correct. Surprisingly, two of the four defenses in Tier One did not come through: the Eagles against the Titans, and the Bucs against the Browns. It’s clear that we chose both of those teams because of their supposedly easy matchups, and while I do believe the Eagles are a good defense, I had my doubts about the Bucs. This is yet another reminder for us that we need to be focusing more on the talent on the defensive end than just the matchup.
Three of the four teams in tier two hit, and all of them (Patriots, Steelers, Rams) were solid defenses that we put in the top 10 because we trusted their overall talent. Same goes for the Broncos, who landed back inside the top 10. Combine that with what we just learned about the Bucs, and it’s a pretty firm reminder for us that we shouldn’t overrate matchups just one week into the season. They are a component, but just a small component while we figure out just how good teams actually are.
As a reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
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Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 2: 6-2
SEASON TOTAL: 10-10 (50% hit rate)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly connected to top 10 fantasy defenses were first downs allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, but maybe we’re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas’ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.
I’ll obviously have to make adjustments to the algorithm each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
Obviously, the injury to Jayden Daniels was one of the biggest injuries of Week 2, and while Marcus Mariota is more than capable as a backup, it does impact our rankings here. We also saw Nick Emmanwori return last week, and I expect his snap total to increase this week. The Seahawks held Arizona to 151 total yards on 10 drives and a 25% third-down rate. Now, Washington brings the league’s lowest implied total into this game, so it’s hard to have anything but extreme confidence in the Seahawks.
The Chiefs are currently 16th in pressure rate, and Steve Spagnuolo’s unit isn’t perfect, as Jonathan Taylor got loose for two scores last week. However, the Chiefs have also played the Broncos and Colts, who have two of the best offensive lines in football, which would explain the poor pressure rate. This Miami offense looks like a disaster. Malik Willis said he didn’t want to take sacks in Week 2 and then took four sacks. He holds onto the ball too long, doesn’t seem to want to scramble, and the team won’t let him push the ball down the field. I don’t think Miami is going to stop the Chiefs, which is going to force the Dolphins to pass to stay in the game in the second half, and that’s going to lead to sacks. When you factor in that I also don’t expect the Dolphins to score many points (they have the 2nd-lowest implied team total on the slate), then the Chiefs feel like a really solid play this week.
Brian Flores’ defense held Caleb Williams to a 56.2 passer rating even before Williams got hurt. The Vikings blitz far more than any team in the NFL and have created more pressure than any team in the NFL so far this season. Dallas Turner already has three sacks and 11 QB hits in two games in this breakout season, and Baker Mayfield seemingly welcomes pressure so that he can run around and try to play hero ball. Baker’s poor play has actually extended into the last few weeks of last season, and I think Flores will force him into bad throws and some sacks this week, making the Vikings a solid play.
After playing internationally in Week 1, San Francisco got an easy matchup in Week 2 against the Dolphins. That makes it hard to really know how good this 49ers defense is, but I tend to believe that they have clear ability, and I also don’t think this Cardinals offense is more than an average offense. The 49ers are 5th in pressure rate through two weeks, which should be an advantage against a mediocre Cardinals offensive line, and the Cardinals have the 6th-lowest implied team total on the slate. If you added the 49ers for Week 2, I would hold onto them this week.
The Eagles’ ranking is a little unresolved for me. Ben Johnson said on Tuesday that Caleb Williams is “week to week” and expected to miss some time. I would assume, given how important Williams is and how he reacted to his injury, that the Bears will hold him out for at least a week. That would lead to Tyson Bagent starting this game, and he did not look great against the Vikings. Yes, that was in the rain, but it would be a real downgrade for the Bears offense, and they currently have the 7th-lowest implied team total on the slate. Even with a mediocre showing against Tennessee, where the Eagles allowed 5.7 yards/play and a 46.2% conversion rate on third down, I think they are in play here.
Yes, the Jaguars defense didn’t touch Bo Nix last week, but they’ve been a top 10 defense in pressure rate so far this season. That Broncos offensive line is one of the best in football, and the Patriots offensive line was fairly average, and that was before they lost Michael Onwenu to a broken ankle last week. Pair that with A.J. Brown still not playing for the Patriots, I think this is a safe floor spot for a Jaguars at home that has been doing a good job of limiting third-down conversions and explosive plays. The Jags may not “win” you a week, but I don’t think they’re going to hurt you either.
I’m a little higher on Carolina than the raw numbers want me to be, and perhaps that’s me putting too much weight on games against Cooper Rush and a Bears game that got sloppy in the second half. The Panthers’ run defense hasn’t looked great on paper, but their pressure rate and disruption have been real, and Cleveland’s offense, especially their offensive line, isn’t the kind of unit that should change that. I know the Browns just beat the Bucs, but I still don’t believe in Deshaun Watson, and I don’t think Quinshon Judkins is going to have as much success on the ground as Bijan Robinson had. I’m going back to the well with the Panthers here.
New England sacked Aaron Rodgers four times and forced two takeaways with safety Harold Landry on IR and Dre’Mont Jones getting hurt in Week 2. I think their defensive success in 2025 was far more realistic than their offensive performance. The Steelers aren’t a great offense, but the Patriots limited them to 4.7 yards per pass attempt. That’s going to be tougher to do against the Jaguars, but I think this Patriots defense is proving to be playable in most matchups.
The Rams’ numbers in week two looked like the defense we expected at the start of the season. Their pressure rate and third-down defense are both trending up, which is nice to see even with Myles Garrett hurt. A big reason for that is that Aaron Donald returned in Week 2 and played 32 of 55 snaps. He was also double-teamed on seven of his 18 pass rush snaps, which obviously opens up opportunities for his teammates. Denver’s offense is solid but inconsistent, and so I think I can trust the Rams as a good unit here.
After a poor defensive showing against Buffalo, Houston bounced back against Cincinnati in Week 2, allowing a 33.3% conversion rate on third down and 1.5 points per drive. One of the two touchdowns they allowed was on an insane catch from Ja’Marr Chase that few other receivers in the NFL would have made. I still believe in this defense, and I think they will get pressure on a still-recovering Daniel Jones, which will lead to sacks and possibly an interception or two.
I’ve gone back and forth on how much stock to put in Cincinnati holding Tampa Bay and Houston to 33 combined points. The addition of Dexter Lawrence is a real factor, and holding Houston running back to 18 rushing yards on 14 carries could be a real sign there. The Bengals are also doing a great job of limiting touchdowns and are 4th in the league in turnover rate in the early going. I wouldn’t call this a smash spot, but I’m not a fan of this Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers offense, so I’m OK using the Bengals this week.
Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley earned his praise this weekend by holding the Ravens to 64 total yards in four second-half drives. Yes, the Ravens didn’t have Zay Flowers in this one, but they didn’t in the first half either, and they were moving the ball, so the Saints defense made the adjustments and clamped down. Las Vegas hasn’t been consistent enough offensively for me to expect a different story here, and I trust Brandon Staley to have his defense ready to go.
I should make this clear that this ranking is solely because we’ve had reports that Michael Penix is going to be returning in Week 3. If that’s the case, I think we see a drastically different Falcons offense. I don’t think they’re an elite offense, but I also think the quarterback play with Cooper Rush was a travesty. Penix will play behind a solid offensive line with an elite running back in Bijan Robinson, an elite receiver in Drake London, and a solid tight end in Kyle Pitts. Lukas Van Ness has been good for the Packers, but remember that this defense scored just 5 fantasy points against the Jets in Week 2 in the rain. Are the Falcons with Penix that much worse than the Jets offense? I don’t believe so, and so I have the Packers as a playable defense but one outside my top 10 right now.
The Steelers remain a solid defense and are top 10 in both pressure rate and third-down conversion rate so far this season. Getting two takeaways and allowing just 91 net passing yards to Drake Maye is a good week. However, we know A.J. Brown didn’t play in that game, and Cincinnati is playing better offensive football than anyone the Steelers have faced so far this year. As a result, I’d stay away in anything but deeper formats.
Yes, the Raiders are 2-0, but I don’t want to give them too much credit for limiting the Chargers to 14 points after also beating the Dolphins in Week 1. The Chargers offense looks like a mess and fumbled the ball six times on Sunday. SIX! The Raiders getting three takeaways in one game isn’t something I’d bet on repeating, but the floor here is fine against an inconsistent Saints offense on the other side.
Speaking of that Chargers offense, they haven’t looked right to start the season, and it’s entirely possible that boy genius Mike McDaniel has created a system that is too hard to adjust to quickly. The interior of their offensive line is a major issue right now, and the Bills, despite their defensive lapses, are 6th in pressure rate right now. I expect the Bills defense to continue to adjust to their new scheme as the year goes on, but we could also argue that with the Chargers on offense here. This will be a game of which team can adapt to a new style of play quicker, and that’s a tough gamble to take this early in the season.
The Browns won on Sunday and sacked Baker Mayfield three times, which needs to be lauded. They have also done a good job this season of limiting touchdowns in the red zone. However, the Panthers look like a better offense than the Bucs right now. Bryce Young is playing good football, and Tetaroia McMillan and Jalen Coker give him two legitimate weapons. I also still believe that the Browns defense will put their offense in some bad spots, and so I can’t rely on this defense too much this Sunday.
The Titans have the 5th-lowest implied team total on the slate, so we need to at least consider the Giants here. However, a 65% third-down conversion rate allowed and a 19.1% pressure rate isn’t a defense I want to rank much higher than this. Jaxson Dart‘s knee injury could also lead to quick drives or Jameis Winston turnovers, which could put the Giants defense in bad spots. Tennessee’s offense is bad enough to keep this from being a disaster, but that’s probably the only reason I have the Giants this high.
Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can’t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.
I like the Ravens and Broncos defenses, but there are not good matchups for them. I can’t go back to trusting the Falcons defense after last week, and Kyler Murray should be back this week, so I can’t trust a Bucs defense that let us down and looked bad against Deshaun Watson. Dallas Goedert being out helps the Bears defense, but not enough for me to rank them higher, and this Lions defense is too beat up for me to consider them against the Jets. They’re down their two starting safeties, and now Avonte Maddox is done for the season. The Jets aren’t a good enough offense to fully punish the Lions the way the Bills did, but they are a solid unit that can move the ball, and Geno Smith tends to avoid major mistakes.
As always, I can’t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.
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