What if I told 18 just feels like the number. Do I have Caleb Williams syndrome? Do I miss Peyton Manning? Have I seen too much of Paintin’ Manning? Or am I just all over J.J. McCarthy this week? Either way, not entirely arbitrarily, but indeed with some degree of hipfire-performance threshold, I’ve decided, this week, for must-starts, I want to tout guys who can break into the top-18 performances of their respective classes. That feels like a great bellwether for fantastic performance this week, and affords analysis for a tier of prospects outside the high-end WR/RB2 ranks to potentially win you your week.
And so—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 9 edition. The ride-the-wave edition. Ahem.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five sleeper and upside plays for fantasy football Week 9. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Ryan Flournoy, DAL (at Colts)
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott threw behind Ryan Flournoy on a crosser against Arizona. Flournoy reached back, plucked the ball with one hand, and slipped into the end zone. Prescott went after him in the end zone again later, and Flournoy drew interference at the 2. He’s drawn four red-zone targets in four games since Week 5, even as Dallas has sent him exactly four throws in four of his last five.
The Cowboys have ruled out receiver KaVontae Turpin. Wideout George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson are questionable. I’d start Flournoy in a deep league if either sits. Indianapolis has held perimeter receivers to the ninth-fewest yards per target over their last five games. When Dallas moves Flournoy inside, he’ll face a defense that’s allowed slot receivers 66.3 yards per game this season.
Dylan Sampson, CLE (at Saints)
Pittsburgh put Cleveland in a hole, and Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson spent the second half throwing underneath to Dylan Sampson. Sampson caught six of eight targets for 62 yards, including three straight catches on Cleveland’s final drive. He carried once all afternoon.
Shedeur Sanders takes over at quarterback with Watson in concussion protocol. The Saints have let backs gain 37.7 receiving yards per game, eighth-most in the league, so Sanders has a useful outlet if New Orleans puts Cleveland behind again. The Browns could just as easily spend Sunday handing off to lead back Quinshon Judkins. New Orleans has conceded 120.4 rushing yards per game to backs, and Judkins has taken every goal-line carry since Sampson returned. I’d use Sampson in a deep PPR league where four or five catches can make the start worthwhile.
Malachi Fields, NYG (at Eagles)
Giants quarterback J.J. McCarthy found Malachi Fields for 47 yards in the first quarter at Houston. The rookie caught four of five targets for 83 yards in all, his best game before the bye. Fellow Giants receiver Malik Nabers has cleared 110 yards in four straight games and is expected to play, so Fields may get another handful of throws. I’d take those chances in a deep league.
Philadelphia has played Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 52% of opposing dropbacks. McCarthy has thrown for a gaudy 12.06 yards per attempt against those coverages, albeit across only 34 dropbacks. Fields has already shown what he can do when McCarthy finds him downfield. One more ball like the one he caught in Houston could make his Sunday.
Jahan Dotson, ATL (vs. Bengals [Madrid])
Backed up at his own two-yard line in a Tampa downpour, Michael Penix Jr. found Jahan Dotson downfield and watched the receiver race away for a 76-yard gain. Dotson supplied 95 of Atlanta’s 125 passing yards that miserable afternoon. I’ll take another shot on his speed in Madrid.
Penix has looked Dotson’s way often enough to give us a chance: the Falcons receiver sits second to Drake London in targets, and he’s cleared 50 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Cincinnati makes this a gamble. Dotson runs 78% of his routes outside, where the Bengals have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers. He also hasn’t caught more than three passes in a game all season. If you need a safer PPR floor, look elsewhere. If you need somebody to rip off a long gain and swing your matchup, Dotson can do it.
Kendre Miller, NO (vs. Browns)
Pittsburgh held Kendre Miller to six yards on eight carries before the bye. A week earlier, he took 20 handoffs for 70 yards against the Giants, who had to tackle him at the 1 twice. With fellow Saints back Travis Etienne Jr. still on injured reserve, Miller has handled 52.8% of New Orleans’ rushing attempts over their last three games. Saints back Alvin Kamara has run routes at more than twice Miller’s rate in that stretch.
If New Orleans gets ahead, the Browns could spend a long afternoon tackling Miller. They just let Pittsburgh run for 200 yards and will play without defensive tackle Maliek Collins. I’d flex Miller in a deep league on the chance he gets another crack from the 1. With Kamara doing more of the receiving, Miller may need to punch it in this time.
Source link
