“We have a lot more ballgames to play. I still think it’s early. I think everybody in here is thinking the same thing, that we have a lot of ballgames and we’re going battle to win this division.” – Ceddanne Rafaela, after the Red Sox’s 8-1 win over the White Sox on July 7.
The words at the time seemed like the epitome of hyperbole.
It was a well-meaning player, trying to push forward the newfound optimism which had just started to take root with the Red Sox. Sure, for the first time since May 23, they had found themselves as few as seven games under .500, having just won their fourth game in a row. But the previous three victories had come against the lowly Angels, and, more importantly, they were 12 games behind Tampa Bay for the American League division lead.
It was almost as if Rafaela’s postgame proclamation was a slip of the tongue.
Wild card? Sure. The Red Sox had crawled back into that conversation, with FanGraphs giving them a 22.3 percent chance of making the postseason. But the division? The odds of winning that sat at … wait for it … 0.9 percent.
Rafaela was right in the sense that at the time of his comment, it was relatively early, having played 55 percent of the regular season. Yet, at the time of the victory over the White Sox the Red Sox had managed just one win streak over three games, having hit fewer home runs than any team in baseball.
Flash forward to Wednesday night, after another win against those same White Sox.
They sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind the Rays (one behind the Yankees for the top wild card spot) with the kind of momentum even Rafaela couldn’t have imagined.
– The Red Sox are an MLB-best 25-3 since July 3, and 30-5 since June 25, each the respective best 28-game and 35-game spans in franchise history. They are also an MLB-best 33-8 in 41 games since June 19. It is just their 4th season with as many as 33 wins in any 41-game span (also 2018, 1950, and 1946).
– Won their nine consecutive series, the second-longest streak in franchise history (min. 2 games per series), behind only an 11-series streak in 1912. (Source: Elias.)
– The Sox have now won 12 straight games against division-leading teams.
– That team, which was dead last in MLB when it came to hitting the ball out of the ballpark, has the third-most homers since that July 7 game in Chicago, hitting home runs in nine straight games.
The odds now of winning the American League East? Make that a gaudy 13.6 percent. The clouds are starting to part when it comes to Rafaela’s premonition.
“Just [a mindset of] expecting to win,” said Red Sox starter Sonny Gray, who recorded his 14th quality start with six shutout innings in the Sox’s 4-0 win over the White Sox on Wednesday. “Showing up to the park and just expecting to win no matter what it looks like.”
So, now that the goalposts have been moved, with the Red Sox living life with a 93.6 percent chance of making the postseason, why can the unthinkable actually become thinkable? Start with the now sizable sample size for this team. It has been 35 games now since that bad plane ride from Colorado. That’s not nothing.
And what makes this ground gain on the Rays even more impressive is that over the course of that time, only one other team has won as many as 24 games. That would be Tampa Bay.
There is something else for the Red Sox to hang their hats on, however. After this series, the Red Sox aren’t slated to play another first-place team until facing the Rays in mid-September. The Sox have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in MLB (.489 combined opponents’ win pct). It is a reality that certainly doesn’t hurt the hope.
Maybe Rafaela knew something we didn’t. Maybe he was just caught up in the moment. Either way, a month later there are a lot of mea culpas flying around. Who knew history was around the corner? Evidently, the center fielder did.
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